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Justin M. OldsProjectsProgressAbout
Last week in stocks

Accessibility Technology

Systems Engineering

Data Mining

Forecasting

Enabled Autonomy
Accessibility Technology for Watching Videos

Featuring:

Automated Browsing Experience
Simple Touch for Selection
Responsive Visual & Audio Feedback
Auto Screen Off if Unused
Disabled System Menu and Display
Cloud Synced Videos (No Download Delays)

STOCKS

Stocks

Leveraging a weekly forecasting framework, this project provides predictions for upcoming stock values and buy/sell recommendations.

Featured Signal: Dow Jones ETF (DIA)

ForecastN=59Runningavg3-WeekavgLast Week2026-10-04Current Week2026-10-11
Dow Jones ETF (DIA)SD: 26.8489.5514.8516.1
Baseline Forecasts
490.1517.0506.6517.6
Enhanced Forecasts
490.2517.2507.9514.7
STOCKS
Go To Dashboard
WEB SEARCH

Web Search

Search term trends (e.g., from trends.google.com) can gauge levels of interest from the general population. These signals are useful across many domains, such as understanding demand for various products or activities.

Featured Signal: Search: 'payday loan'

ForecastN=59Runningavg3-WeekavgLast Week2026-10-04Current Week2026-10-11
Search: 'payday loan'SD: 8.1381.767.069.0
Baseline Forecasts
81.073.571.366.9
Enhanced Forecasts
WEB SEARCH
Go To Dashboard
MACRO

Macro

Economic indicators: VIX, rates, inflation, and more

Featured Signal: 30-Year Mortgage Rate

ForecastN=58Runningavg3-WeekavgLast Week2026-10-04Current Week2026-10-11
30-Year Mortgage RateSD: 0.296.337.097.40
Baseline Forecasts
6.336.947.347.47
Enhanced Forecasts
MACRO
Go To Dashboard
WEATHER

Weather

Many behaviors fluctuate in response to weather changes and seasonal trends. As a bonus, expert weather forecasts are readily available for usage or benchmarking forecasting methods.

Featured Signal: Local Max Temp (F)

ForecastN=59Runningavg3-WeekavgLast Week2026-10-04Current Week2026-10-11
Local Max Temp (F)SD: 18.170.077.178.1
Baseline Forecasts
70.178.078.073.5
Enhanced Forecasts
WEATHER
Go To Dashboard
BACKEND DEV

Data Warehouse and Machine Learning Backend

This backend system provides ongoing data integration and machine learning model management, supporting this web app with curated data for visualizations and data-driven recommendations.

BACKEND DEV
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WEB DEV

Project Management Web App

You are here. This web app is designed to showcase the evolution of recommendation-focused data projects, supporting insights with refreshed data, ongoing forecasts, and documented progress. [Code Repo]

WEB DEV
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ENABLED AUTONOMY

Enabled Autonomy

An accessibility-focused video player. This app enables autonomy for individuals with cognitive impairment to browse and enjoy videos independently using a tablet.

Featured Signal: Weekly Usage Hours

ForecastN=55Runningavg3-WeekavgLast Week2026-09-06Current Week2026-09-13
Weekly Usage HoursSD: 13.324.436.21.62
Baseline Forecasts
23.740.440.52.28
Enhanced Forecasts
24.138.038.11.13
ENABLED AUTONOMY
Go To Dashboard
BACKEND DEVWeekly

Week of Oct 11

1.6 h training · 2.6 h compute · 80 signals

Build/DataOct 11
MACROWeekly

Week of Oct 11

5 of 19 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsOct 11
STOCKSWeekly

Week of Oct 11

$110.06 vs $117.47 SPY buy & hold · 30 wk

TradingOct 11
WEATHERWeekly

Week of Oct 11

3 of 4 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsOct 11
WEB SEARCHWeekly

Week of Oct 11

20 of 96 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsOct 11
BACKEND DEVWeekly

Week of Oct 4

1.6 h training · 2.7 h compute · 80 signals

Build/DataOct 4
MACROWeekly

Week of Oct 4

6 of 19 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsOct 4
STOCKSWeekly

Week of Oct 4

$106.17 vs $114.81 SPY buy & hold · 30 wk

TradingOct 4
WEATHERWeekly

Week of Oct 4

3 of 4 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsOct 4
WEB SEARCHWeekly

Week of Oct 4

14 of 96 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsOct 4
BACKEND DEVWeekly

Week of Sep 27

5.9 h training · 6.7 h compute · 79 signals

Build/DataSep 27
MACROWeekly

Week of Sep 27

5 of 19 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsSep 27
STOCKSWeekly

Week of Sep 27

$107.26 vs $115.03 SPY buy & hold · 29 wk

TradingSep 27
WEATHERWeekly

Week of Sep 27

3 of 4 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsSep 27
WEB SEARCHWeekly

Week of Sep 27

20 of 96 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsSep 27
BACKEND DEVWeekly

Week of Sep 20

15.2 h training · 15.9 h compute · 77 signals

Build/DataSep 20
MACROWeekly

Week of Sep 20

6 of 18 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsSep 20
STOCKSWeekly

Week of Sep 20

$105.00 vs $111.78 SPY buy & hold · 29 wk

TradingSep 20
WEATHERWeekly

Week of Sep 20

3 of 4 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsSep 20
WEB SEARCHWeekly

Week of Sep 20

22 of 96 signals ahead of persistence · 26 wk

Testing/AnalyticsSep 20
STOCKSCompleted

Selection Remix and Breadth

Thirteen constructions, two nulls; ladder flat

Testing/AnalyticsSep 18
STOCKSCompleted

Oil & Gas Joins the Roster

Nine names, one per sub-industry; no rebuild

Build/DataSep 16
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Strategy Record Review

The comb-through built on what persists, not on a leaderboard

Build/DataSep 7
STOCKSCompleted

What Persists Per Stock

Alpha, hit rate and skill do not; volatility and drawdown do

Testing/AnalyticsSep 7
WEATHERCompleted

The Persistence Control

Skill correlation across halves +0.76; three of four signals positive twice

Testing/AnalyticsSep 7
WEB DEVCompleted

Strategy Record Page

Forward record, vol tiers, monitor; new nav rail

Build/DataSep 7
WEB SEARCHCompleted

The Persistent Core

10 terms positive in both halves of the record; four above 5% twice

Testing/AnalyticsSep 7
ENABLED AUTONOMYWeekly

Week of Sep 6

+0/−0 · usage +32.1% over the pre-rollout median

UsageSep 6
WEB DEVCompleted

Measure the Dashboard, Don't Guess

273 mounted Plotly charts were the cost, not the bytes

Build/DataAug 31
BACKEND DEVCompleted

The Refit Boundary

One training cohort, one decision rule, fresh data verified first

Build/DataAug 30
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Evidence Admission Policy

Pool breadth costs skill; admit on non-inferiority, escalate on use

ConceptAug 29
STOCKSCompleted

Gold and Precious-Metals Complex

26 screened, 8 admitted, duplicates rejected

Build/DataAug 29
STOCKSIn-Progress

volgate_v1: Gate on Vol, Not Direction

Forecasts capture ~0% of directional edge; vol timing beats random de-risking by 3 sd

Build/DataAug 26
STOCKSCompleted

Probabilities Are Informationless

A constant base rate beats them; the moving threshold was retired

Testing/AnalyticsAug 25
MACROCompleted

Macro Is an Evidence Domain

Own skill weak; as evidence inside stock models it earns its keep

ConceptAug 24
MACROCompleted

MACRO2: Variance Risk Premium and SKEW

Strategy-aligned additions, derived free from data already on disk

Build/DataAug 24
ENABLED AUTONOMYWeekly

Week of Aug 23

+3/−2 · usage +105.3% over the pre-rollout median

UsageAug 23
BACKEND DEVCompleted

SQL Inspection Layer

A DuckDB warehouse over every artifact, with standing invariant tests

Build/DataAug 23
WEB SEARCHCompleted

Search Demand Is the Product

26 of 82 terms beat the random walk; the top-10 most forecastable signals are all here

ConceptAug 23
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Bit-Deterministic, Shrunk, Append-Only

The run-noise root cause, and a universal accuracy gain

Build/DataAug 22
WEATHERCompleted

Shrinkage Confirmed on the Control

+2.2 points held-out; the domain that wanted the least shrinkage

Build/DataAug 22
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Pipeline Validated on Known Ground Truth

SYNTH1: learns real structure, shows no leak on a random walk

Testing/AnalyticsAug 21
WEB SEARCHCompleted

22-Year Long-History Base

82 terms stitched 2004 to present, one frozen vintage: +10.8 points of skill

Build/DataAug 21
STOCKSIn-Progress

riskparity_v1 Paper-Trades Forward

Inverse-vol sizing with no signals, frozen and settling weekly

Build/DataAug 19
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Two-Tier Strategy Measurement

Iterate fast in the lab, prove slowly in an append-only record

ConceptAug 19
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Usage Hours as a Forecast Target

Beats persistence; excluded as evidence for everyone else

Testing/AnalyticsAug 19
WEB DEVCompleted

/methods and /features

The experiment programme and feature lab, powered by the warehouse

Build/DataAug 19
WEB SEARCHCompleted

Enhanced Trends and the Preis Rule, Closed

Covariate evidence adds no skill; 'debt' has no edge on today's data

Testing/AnalyticsAug 19
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Client-Legibility Release

Registry-driven names, 165 signals, three-layer publish

Build/DataAug 18
STOCKSCompleted

Tier-2 Roster and Honest Uncertainty

16 to 60 stocks, ±1σ trailing-vol bands on every chart

Build/DataAug 18
STOCKSCompleted

Wave-2 Triad Closed in a Day

Direction, volatility, cross-section, horizon: six pre-registered A/Bs

Testing/AnalyticsAug 18
WEB DEVCompleted

Dashboard Index/Detail Split

The page had died at 60 stocks; heap 1.5 GB to 99 MB

Build/DataAug 18
WEB SEARCHCompleted

Tier-2 Terms

30 to 82 search-demand signals, each matched to a stock where one exists

Build/DataAug 18
ENABLED AUTONOMYWeekly

Week of Aug 16

+6/−1 · usage +100.5% over the pre-rollout median

UsageAug 16
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Delta Targets, and the Leak They Exposed

94.9% direction on SPY was the alarm, not the discovery

Testing/AnalyticsAug 14
WEB DEVCompleted

Forecast Skill Panel

The capability claim, with its yardstick

DesignAug 14
WEATHERCompleted

Weather as the Control Domain

Falsifying the machinery on purpose: 3 of 4 signals beat every naive rule

Testing/AnalyticsAug 12
STOCKSCompleted

Direction-Skill Audit

5,088 graded calls, no slice with skill, confidence anti-informative

Testing/AnalyticsAug 11
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Blinded Validation Caught a 10x Overstatement

Unblinded said +10.5% alpha; blinded said +1.79%

Testing/AnalyticsAug 9
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Sunday Fetch Resilience

VPN rotations were tearing the host network mid-fetch

Build/DataAug 7
WEB DEVCompleted

Onboarding Hub

A dated front door: docs map, glossary hovers, live state

DesignAug 7
WEB SEARCHCompleted

Google Rewrites Its Own History

Renormalization measured in the stored fetches; the read-path fix rejected by its own gate

Testing/AnalyticsAug 7
WEB DEVCompleted

/review: Replay Any Sunday Run

Fast-forward or step-by-step, with the verification checklist as code

Build/DataAug 6
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

TV Series on Their Own Rail

Engagement promotes the next episode rather than protecting the current one

DesignJul 26
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Dev / Prod Split

Inert dev container, prod gated behind an explicit flag

Build/DataJul 19
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Engagement-Based Weekly Video Shuffler

Rollout week 0 (rollout: 2026-05-24)

Build/DataJul 12
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Lifecycle Measurement Layer

Stints, strikes and evergreens: grading every pick by what it earned

Testing/AnalyticsJul 8
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Engineering Handbook

Numbered chapters, onboarding tour, communication doctrine

ConceptJul 4
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Paper-Trading KPI Layer

Risk metrics, portfolio aggregator, 61-week binary backfill

Build/DataJun 18
STOCKSCompleted

The Honest KPI

53-week walk-forward: not beating buy-and-hold

Testing/AnalyticsJun 7
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Kiosk Weekly Refresh

The locked tablet picks up Sunday's shuffle without a redeploy

Build/DataMay 24
MACROCompleted

Macro Domain Onboarded

18 indicators: rates, spreads, FX, commodities, valuation, volatility

Build/DataApr 26
BACKEND DEVCompleted

A/B Validation Harness

Seeded determinism, cost sweep, snapshot lineage

Testing/AnalyticsApr 23
WEB DEVCompleted

UI Enhancements

Stats Showcase (Animation & Annotation)

DesignOct 3
WEB DEVCompleted

UI Enhancements

Replacing RMSE with 5-Star system

DesignSep 28
WEB DEVCompleted

Dynamic Dashboard Pages

Links to Dashboards from Project Cards

Build/DataNov 5
WEATHERCompleted

Correcting Sunday Week Start

Accounting for Time Zone Shifts

Build/DataOct 17
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Blob Storage for Dashboard Data

Serve Curated Data Files Across Projects

Build/DataOct 3
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Scheduled Data Processing

Automation for Weekly Processing

DesignSep 30
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Baseline & Enhanced Modeling

Google Trends Data Helps Predict Usage

Testing/AnalyticsSep 29
WEATHERCompleted

Baseline Weather Forecasts

Weekly Forecasts Using Prior Signal Data

Build/DataSep 22
STOCKSCompleted

Following Closing Price Values

Outline Scope and Success Markers

ConceptSep 16
WEB DEVCompleted

Featured Weekly Plot (plotly.js)

Wider View of Featured Data

Build/DataSep 8
WEATHERCompleted

V1 Weather Signals (Local)

Source Data and Processing

DesignSep 1
BACKEND DEVIn-Progress

Novel and Sparse Time-Series Features

Feature Engineering Time and Domain Data

ConceptAug 31
BACKEND DEVCompleted

GPU and Parallel Compute (CUDA image)

Reconfiguring Backend System for CUDA

Build/DataAug 26
WEB DEVCompleted

Featured Data SVG Component

Time Series Lines and 'Last Week' Points

Build/DataJul 21
WEB SEARCHCompleted

Keywords for Predicting Video Watching

Air Conditioner, Indoor, Outdoor, Showtimes

DesignJul 14
WEB SEARCHCompleted

Web Search Trends for Prediction

Methodology from Preis, Moat, and Stanley (2013)

ConceptJun 30
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v2 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Quality of Life Changes

Build/DataJun 15
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Early Testing and Observation

Testing/AnalyticsJun 12
BACKEND DEVCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Data Fetching and Processing

Build/DataJun 1
BACKEND DEVCompleted

v1 Data Warehouse

Fetch and Processing System

DesignMay 29
BACKEND DEVCompleted

Data Warehouse Development

Outline Scope and Success Markers

ConceptMay 22
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Data Processing -- Usage Hours

DesignMay 2
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Backend Service for Data Processing

ConceptApr 25
WEB DEVCompleted

v1 Projects Web App

Project and Progress Components

DesignApr 20
WEB DEVCompleted

v1 Projects Web App

Development Page Layout

DesignApr 18
HOUSINGCompleted

Tracking US Metro Location Housing Values

Foundational Data

ConceptApr 18
WEB DEVCompleted

v1 Projects Web App

Outline Scope and Success Markers

ConceptApr 17
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Touch Tablet Selection, Passive Browsing

DesignNov 10
ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Outline Scope and Success Markers

ConceptNov 2
Profile

Hi, welcome.This website provides weekly reporting for the Enabled Autonomy Video Player tablet and other data signals. The main goal is to support evidence-based improvements for the app and other projects by monitoring and forecasting key measurements.I created the Enabled Autonomy Video Player app for my cousin, Bill (cognitively impaired), to provide him a video browsing and viewing experience he can engage with independently.

365 Retail Markets logo

365 Retail Markets

Senior Data Analyst

2025 - present

Created (0-to-1) a recommendation system for routing, restocking and merchandising. Weekly runs from an automated backend (dbt / Snowflake / Airflow) reach a client-facing frontend with evidence for each action and an AI chat feature; validated against operator behavior by backtesting.

Sole developer of a personalized product recommendation data product, served within a consumer-facing app (impact: +8.3% spending per customer).

Estimated theft from cancel rate for ~45k U.S. unattended retail locations; delivered a client-ready dashboard with ROI estimates, adopted by the sales team.

SnowflakedbtAnt-colony route solver (OSRM road network)LLM / AI
Little Caesars Logo

Little Caesars

Data Scientist

2021 - 2024

Standardized data pipelines for order, customer, and store-level measurement, supporting business-wide analytics (marketing promotions, test items, operational changes).

Created foundational customer segmentation methodology based on retention/churn modeling, used by the marketing partnership for targeted and programmatic marketing.

Led development for item-specific demand predictions served daily to store operators at each domestic and international location.

Tech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech Used
Casper Sleep Logo

Casper Sleep

Data Scientist

2019

Media-mix modeling: designed a data pipeline and Bayesian regression model optimizing channel-by-funnel ad spending, highlighting diminishing returns and underused channels.

Developed a dashboard visualizing ad-spend response curves for channel-by-funnel targets.

Reviewed and adjusted existing advertising testing methods, including geospatial A/B testing.

Tech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech Used
University of Lausanne Logo

University of Lausanne

Data Scientist and Course Instructor

2014 - 2018

Developed a sequential Monte Carlo model with parameter estimation via a generalized linear mixed model, testing competing theories of memory-based decision making.

Designed the computer-based experiments behind it and evaluated predictive accuracy against the behavioral results they produced.

Secured 2-year postdoctoral salary funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (260K CHF).

Tech UsedTech UsedTech UsedTech Used

Education

Ph.D. in Cognitive and Brain Sciences

State University of New York at Binghamton

B.S. (Summa cum laude) in Psychology

Eastern Michigan University

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